GSEM1

This was my second time applying and got the 'N' again. Last year I wasn't too shocked, but this year I put a lot of work into my package, and really strengthened my resume so it was a punch to the gut for sure. Your encouragement really does mean a lot. For the other non-selects, I hope to see you all in here again next year.

Boy, I feel you there. I'm stuck in the middle of the PCS from HELL! Transferring from Japan to Singapore and was supposed to depart Feb. 10. Tested positive during the 48 hour pre-travel test and have been quarantined in a single hotel room with my family of four ever since. Getting into Singapore right now is no joke, and we have to start the process to get entry approval from the Singaporean government all over again. Still don't have new flights. Hoping to get out of here the first week of March now. I could really use some good news this week to lift my spirits!

The short answer is yes, it is possible. Friday is of course most likely if we use the last three years as any indicator. Which might not be any indicator at all. For example the results in '02/'03/'04 were all released on a Friday and was then followed by a six year stretch where they were released on days other than Fridays. The last time the results were released on a day other than Friday was in 2018 for the FY-19 board results. That particular year the NAVADMIN was released on a Thursday. If we really want to go back and look at past results, its actually more likely (historically speaking) that the results will come out on a day other than Friday. Fridays: 8 Thursdays: 7 Wednesdays: 2 Tuesdays: 5 Results have not been released on a Monday at any point in the past 20 years. Honestly, I suspect they release the NAVADMIN as soon as possible once the board selections have made it through the chop-chain and are approved. It's only a coincidence that they have recently been released on Fridays in recent years. I don't have any kind of inside baseball knowledge on the subject, its just my gut feeling.

Boy, I was really hoping to wake up here in Japan this morning to some great news, but it looks like this just isn't our week. I crunched the numbers again, because that's the only thing I can do at this point, and a release next Friday will put it at 46 days between board convening and results NAVADMIN. That's only five days over the 41 day average over the past 20 years so not all that inconceivable. Which, as we all know doesn't really mean a god damned thing in the long run. I really hope that we have some indication early next week that things are moving in a positive direction Don't know about anyone else, but I find myself looking back over my package and evals and critiquing all the things that I could have done better for this year's board. One way or the other, I can't wait for this wait to be over and find out the results one way or the other.

I'd really like to see that BOL "A" get cleared. Only going off of last year's experience, but that BOL status had cleared a couple of weeks before the results were released. Not sure if that is typical. Maybe some other folks here who have submitted more than once can provide some insight how it went in past years?

This is my second time. Last year I felt like I had a relatively solid package, this year is stronger still. But you really never know which way these boards will break. I feel the same way about the reduction in applicants also. Especially since there were 7 fewer quotas this FY in the designator I applied for, a reduction in applicants might just negate the lower number of quotas. Hopefully the reduction in applicants and a stronger package is enough to tip the scales in my favor this year.

I think the same. 25th is most likely, but I'd love to see results this Friday. Assuming a Friday release like the past three years, the first Friday in March is the 4th. It would be 53 days from board convening date to that day. It hasn't been longer than 50 days awaiting results since the FY-14 in 2013 which was 55 days. Although... 2014 was 50 days, 2017 was 49 days, and 2018 was 50 days. So it is not inconceivable that we may be waiting into March. Its happened before.

I wouldn't be surprised if we results this Friday. It would be roughly in line with historic timelines. However, I also would not be surprised if it takes a couple more weeks. One thing that I've noticed is the SEL STATUS on BOL has not yet cleared and is still showing 'A' for me. Last year, if memory serves correctly, this cleared about mid February the results NAVADMIN followed a few weeks later that first week of March. That may not mean anything at all. We can look back at past timelines, but all the administrative rigamarole that happens behind the scenes remains a mystery.

If you all want to get REALLY obsessive, I've collected and charted data going all the way back to the FY-01 board. Although some data is missing from FY-01 and FY-02. See the attached spreadsheet. I think you can see that its pretty clear the administrative process has changed a lot over the course of 20 or so years, and a lot of that old data really isn't helpful in predicting anything about the more recent boards, but numbers are fun! LDO_CWO.xlsx

I've calculated the same as well more or less. This is definitely a moving target though, and its hard to predict from year to year. For example, last year (FY-22) it was 39 days from board convening to results NAVADMIN. However for FY-21 is was only 29 days, which would make the results NAVADMIN being released 08 February. For the modern era its a safe bet that the results will be released sometime between 08 and 18 February.

What's happening folks. I think I made this account a few years ago when I was up for Chief, but never used it. I thought now might be a good time to chime in and contribute. Being considered for LDO, I too am super excited for the results to get released and have my own share of obsessive tendencies about it, but it's important for all of our sanity to maintain a bit of perspective. I have actually scoured the web and pulled data going back to 2010 regarding board convening dates and NAVADMIN results releases. Taking the past 11 years into consideration, the average number of days between convening and results release is 49 days. If we extrapolate that for this FY, that would mean that the average would place results release around 15 March. In other words, we could not see results for another 10 days, and that would still be well within the average and nothing aberrant. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to wake up tomorrow morning here in Japan with word that the results have dropped. But the reality is that we very well may not see results for over a week. If you're interested, I've attached the Excel spreadsheet for this post. I have NAVADMIN data going back to 2000, but am unable to locate any info for convening dates from 2000-2009. If anyone has an idea where I could find it, I'd love to get this updated all the way back. Hang in there everyone. I really do hope we all get some good news tomorrow (today)!! LDO_CWO.xlsx