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Amid a growing bipartisan consensus that the United States needs to do more to contain China, much of the policy debate in Washington has focused on China’s economic and technological clout. Now, given China’s economic problems—high youth unemployment, a troubled real estate market, increased government debt, an aging society, and lower-than-expected growth—some scholars and policymakers hope that Beijing will be forced to constrain its defense spending. Others go so far as to say the Chinese military is overrated, contending that it will not challenge U.S. dominance any time soon.

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